How to Actually Achieve Our Climate Goals

In This Edition

• The Role of Systems Transitions in Solving Climate Change
• What Makes the Net Zero Pathways Approach Different
• Getting Climate Innovation Policy Right
• Introducing My New Snippets Style Content Insights Section
• Overviews of 10 New Main Platform Reports

No fancy backstory, here are my top insights from a great online cohort course I took last fall called Net Zero Changes Everything: A Strategic Approach.

The Role of Systems Transitions in Solving Climate Change

Most people in this space know that reaching net-zero emissions essentially means changing every part of the global economy. What gets mentioned less though is how that process happens in three distinct stages: emergence, diffusion, and reconfiguration. This is very helpful from a policy design standpoint because of how new solutions can be tailored to the transition stage they apply to, on top of their respective sector and region.

Here’s how the stages come together visually:

And here’s what tailoring policies to them mean in practice:

That all being said, this method does require some changes to the way we develop climate policy. Namely, it’s important to:

• Target systems, not just prices or markets – successful policy acknowledges that core parts of society like transport and agriculture will need to fundamentally change to reach net-zero. In other words, while common metrics like cost parity and market share do of course matter, they’re not the whole story.
• Be adaptable and willing to make adjustments – successful policies are continually refined based on new analysis, the practice of learning by doing, evolving societal conditions, and the advancement of key technologies.

There’s also the key elements of societal acceptance and business support. The first creates legitimacy for new policy measures, while the second matters because deployment in the real world greatly benefits from the private sector’s technical skills, organizational capabilities, and financial resources. Both can be built in gradually in the emergence and diffusion phases mentioned earlier through proper stakeholder engagement and multi-level governance.

What Makes Net Zero Pathways Different

At its core, applying the pathways approach on climate means getting really clear and intentional about how to achieve desired policy outcomes. While the course covered a 3x3 framework for doing so, a few key elements stand out in particular: meta-mapping, prioritization, removing barriers, and measuring progress.

You can essentially think of all this as taking conventional wisdom about climate policy design to the next level, one we as a society desperately need to implement at scale to keep the 1.5C limit in play. It’s also noticeably more effective than slapping a generic carbon tax onto multiple sectors with different needs, or assuming that a policy that works in one region also works everywhere else. Those lines of thinking simply won’t cut it anymore, given the distinct dynamics, challenges, and enabling factors of each system.

Getting Climate Innovation Policy Right

The main principle here is that scaling innovation should explicitly focus on being mission driven, with the ultimate goal of net zero guiding decisions at every step along the way. Sounds simple enough, but it means when push comes to shove, governments need to be prepared to support specific technologies over others, depending on which moves the needle towards reducing emissions. In other words: 

• Do pick winners and acknowledge that it’s necessary to prioritize investing in the most promising options, fund critical infrastructure for them, and reduce uncertainty for the private sector.
• Don’t be careless and set a generic framework to encourage all innovation in general.

What’s also worth noting here is how a mission-oriented approach to policy design requires continuous and dynamic tracking of progress long-term. There are two parts to this: learning by doing and foresight.

• Learning by doing – reflect on past experiences and share new knowledge on best practices across the whole economy at scale.
• Foresight – identify challenges and strengths before devising concrete strategies or potential new institutions.

Quotes to Remember

“The fundamental criteria here is not ‘can this policy reduce greenhouse gas emissions’ because some approaches for that may lead no further, but rather ‘can it contribute to accelerating transformation towards a net zero society’.”

“From a purely techno-economic standpoint, this transformation is affordable and realistic. However, it requires governments, industry, and citizens to think and act boldly in the most open fashion, to accept risk and potential failure, to embrace change, and to understand that we can’t wait for the perfect solution before we begin to take action.”

Easy to Miss Content Gems #1

In non-deep dive editions going forward, I’ll be sharing my top personal insights from recent climate policy content I’ve come across; a new spin inspired by the popular Lunchtime Reads and Hot Takes newsletter section from Cipher. The catch is that each snippet will all be things I didn’t already know as well as mostly exclusive to this newsletter, not on the main platform. While the panel livestreams, webinar recordings, podcast episodes, etc won’t pack quite the same punch as platform resources, my hope is that this will be a good way to actually make use of those assets going forward that would otherwise likely get buried until who knows when.

Moving Faster Without Breaking Things: Accelerating Just and Sustainable Renewables Development – WWF at Climate Week NYC (2023)

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Properly communicating the benefits of clean energy projects to local residents is essential for overcoming the barrage of disinformation they hear from pro-fossil fuel interest groups.

Overcoming Barriers to the Clean Energy Transition – Climate XChange

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Designating a clear lead permitting agency is essential at both the federal and state level.

Making Green Industry The Default Business Case, The Role of Climate Clubs – German Climate Pavilion at COP27

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Implementation of climate clubs need to move fast of course, but counterintuitively, also slow enough to build enough confidence and clarity for non-G7 countries to join it.

The Future of Clean Hydrogen: Separating Hope from Hype – Canary Media

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Clean hydrogen production subsidies ideally need to be adjusted over time to account for the market scaling up. It’s also important to spend demand side incentives strategically, rather than spreading them out too thin between different companies and projects.

Subnational Leaders Supercharging Climate Action Across America – U.S. Center at COP28

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: The IRA has given subnational leaders the power to drive transformation within their jurisdictions. It’s helping states meet their own mitigation targets and helping cities both expand and speed up implementation of their local climate action plans.

Enough Red Tape: We Need to Say Yes to Clean Energy | Rich Powell – TED

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Reviewing clean energy project applications in systematic clusters rather than one-by-one could save 2 years from their average timelines. It’s the equivalent of task batching in the productivity space and very much needed in what the speaker boldly called our “permitting emergency.”

PS: This talk also made it onto the main platform! Details here.

What if We Get This Transition Right? – The Transition Accelerator

Ruipeng’s Top Climate Policy Insight: Climate friendly projects at the city level in Canada still need the level of capital investment that federal and provincial governments are best suited to provide.

Bonus Insights from the In-Person Climate Solutions Summit at UW:

Community Owned Renewable Energy: It’s better to provide upfront incentives to scale low-income rooftop solar programs rather than ones that apply retroactively.

Disruptive Innovation: Permitting reform applies to fusion energy too and should be done differently than fission since their waste profiles aren’t the same.

Exciting New Reports Approved for Main Platform

Pretty self-explanatory, below are the most notable highlights. More to be announced in future editions as I keep working towards finalizing the whole catalog.

Accelerating The Low Carbon Transition: The Case for Stronger, More Targeted and Coordinated International Action – Brookings Institution

This report aims to highlight where the actions of governments and businesses can have the greatest impact on climate, by bringing together knowledge of how technology transitions happen, how international cooperation has succeeded in the past, and applying these insights to the main greenhouse gas emitting sectors. In each of them, it identifies points of leverage for coordinated international action to accelerate low-carbon transitions. In comparison with previous report iterations, what’s new is a focus on the processes of change, rather than on the end goal.

Accelerating U.S. Clean Energy Deployment Through Investment-Grade Policy – Energy Innovation

Plummeting prices for wind, solar, and storage have made them the cheapest choice for almost all new power projects, yet renewables still aren’t growing fast enough because financing risk continues holding them back. This report highlights the biggest financing risks renewable projects face and how public policy can overcome them, since doing so can lower renewable energy costs by up to 50% while speeding up deployment.

Artificial Intelligence for Climate Change Mitigation Roadmap – Innovation for Cool Earth Forum

This report explores high potential opportunities for using AI to fight climate change, including GHG emissions monitoring, the power sector, manufacturing, materials innovation, the food system and road transport. It also examines barriers and risks, and policies for addressing them, then concludes with findings and recommendations.

Clean Energy Standards: State and Federal Policy Options and Considerations – Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES)

This report explains how a Clean Energy Standard (CES) works, describes the benefits that it can deliver, and explores federal and subnational policy options. It also examines some nuances of CES policy design, how it might integrate into economy-wide market-based solutions, and the implications of different choices.

A Critical Minerals Policy for the United States – The Aspen Institute

This report emphasizes the strategic importance of critical minerals for the United States, crucial for clean energy technologies amidst global competition and geopolitical tensions. It underscores the need for a coordinated U.S. strategy to boost production and secure resilient supply chains while minimizing external risks. Insights from an Aspen Institute task force, co-chaired by experts from Columbia University and Harvard Kennedy School, and supported by policymakers and industry leaders, are highlighted to guide Congress in formulating this strategy.

Decarbonizing Japan’s Electricity System: Policy Change to Trigger a Shift – Climate Integrate

This report provides a roadmap for Japan to fully decarbonize its power sector by 2035, based on modeling from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach, including large-scale wind and solar farms, community-led renewable projects, and enhanced grid infrastructure. It also highlights key proposals such as full information disclosure and community participation, central government-led zoning for renewable energy, and ambitious targets for floating offshore wind. Additionally, the report underscores the role of carbon pricing schemes, energy efficiency measures, and a just transition to ensure fair and transparent implementation of the recommended policies. 

Electrify My Government: How a Federal Government-Wide Electrification Campaign Will Meet Our Emissions Goals – Rewiring America

This report outlines a comprehensive strategy for electrifying federal buildings and vehicle fleets, incorporating the solutions into home retrofit programs, and packaging guaranteed mortgages with loans. It emphasizes the importance of leading by example through the electrification of DHS’s vehicle fleet and buildings, targeting high-energy burden homes, and only funding all-electric new construction and disaster relief efforts. It also highlights specific recommendations and relevant programs like the Homestyle Energy Program and GreenCHOICE Program to streamline and scale up green mortgage products. Overall, the report calls for a unified federal approach to reduce carbon emissions and promote energy efficiency as well through electrification initiatives.

A National Roadmap for Clean Buildings: How President Biden Can Use Executive Action to Drive Toward 100% Zero-Emission Buildings – Evergreen Action

This report assesses the Biden administration’s progress on clean buildings and proposes a suite of additional executive actions that will drive transformation of the sector. It starts by reviewing the fundamentals by defining key industry terms, and then turns to identify a realistic roadmap towards achieving the president’s goals, as well as compares the proposed roadmap with the administration's existing building strategies. The policy proposals focus on accelerating the market adoption of clean appliances through Clean Air Act regulations, federal appliance efficiency standards and building procurement mechanisms, plus improvements to the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It concludes with a series of recommendations for the administration to ensure the most effective and equitable implementation of relevant federal investments from the Inflation Reduction Act.

A Policy Toolkit for Global Mass Heat Pump Deployment – Regulatory Assistance Project, CLASP, Global Buildings Performance Network, Crux Alliance

This report and complementary toolkit is a synthesis of policy options to heat pump deployment, as well as a guide to designing the best packages of policies. The interactive component also features short videos that provide an overview of each of the resource’s relevant elements.

Accelerating Heat Pump Adoption Through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and Complementary Policies – Regulatory Assistance Project and CLASP

This report analyzes impacts of the IRA on heat pump uptake in the United States and recommends policies that states can use to further increase its adoption. Said proposals span topics like public participation, clean heat standards, energy efficiency programs, workforce development, and tariffed on-bill financing.